A US-Israel Attack on Iran

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Модераторы: DEK-CHD, Igor, little, Bonita

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A US-Israel Attack on Iran

Сообщение DEK-CHD » Пт ноя 11, 2011 7:34 pm

Всё выглядит уж совсем серьезно и совсем близко.... Оно, возможно, не в первый раз подобное назревало и наблюдалось, и ожидалось, и т.д., однако потенциал развития событий по сценарию, изложенному в статье, и впрямь весьма высок и настолько же вероятен. И всё подкрепляется реальными фактами. В любом случае, рано или поздно что-то подобное НЕПРЕМЕННО произойдет. Это, как мы все очень хорошо знаем, исключительно лишь вопрос времени.

Debka 11-Nov-11

The muted responses of US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to the matter at the top of their agenda, the IAEA report accusing Iran of building a nuclear weapon program, were in line with the same shared tactics which dictated the report's publication date of Tuesday, Nov. 8.

The US and Israeli administrations have worked their way through to an exceptional level of policy coordination in more than one active sphere.
Although in Syria, Bashar Assad has been massacring his people for eight months, the US administration continues to shun military intervention and Israel, which shares a border with Syria, distances itself from its domestic upheaval.
The Obama administration has made the Supreme Military Council ruling Egypt a keystone of its Middle East policy. The Netanyahu government, for its part, treats the Egyptian generals with respect and consideration. Any upsets between Cairo and Jerusalem are handled delicately and with dispatch at the highest levels using Egypt's Intelligence Minister Murad Mofai and the Israeli intelligence Mossad Director Tamir Pardo as go-betweens.
Obama and Netanyahu are also of one mind over the Palestinian question. And, ahead of military action against Iran, Obama insisted on the Turkish and Israeli prime ministers mending their prickly relations.

And indeed the confrontational tones have disappeared from their discourse. Ankara, for instance, has stopped raising objections to the deal whereby Cyprus and Israel have reserved their oil and gas drilling zones in the eastern Mediterranean.

A harmonious working relationship

The US and Israeli leaders, though not exactly buddies at the personal level, are in close, amicable dialogue, almost daily, because harmonious coordination between them is essential for the success of a joint operation to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Rarely has a US president concerned himself with so many tiny minutiae of a military operation, especially not with a foreign leader.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Washington describe three levels of intensive interaction between the two capitals:
The first is the direct line between the president and the prime minister. Their decisions are handed down to US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who has spent most of the last two months in Washington, for laying out the master planning. This is passed to Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of staff and the IDF Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, for the next stage.
CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus and Mossad, Military Intelligence and Shin Bet directors, Tamir Pardo, Brig. Aviv Cochavi and Yoram Cohen are briefed on intelligence aspects of the operation.
The planning goes into the smallest details so as to leave nothing to chance.
Those involved are fully aware that they are charting the largest military operation in history against a national nuclear program. The armies of 13 nations will be involved and more may be drawn in at some point.
In addition to the US, Israel and Iran, the planners cite Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Canada, Australia and Saudi Arabia as involved actively or potentially.

The IDF would provide the sharp point of the operation

The veil was briefly lifted from the advance preparations when straight after Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron discussed cooperating on the Iran venture in the last week of October, the British Chief of staff Gen. Sir David Richards arrived in Israel on Nov. 2 on an unannounced visit, followed the next day by the Israeli defense minister's arrival in London to tie up the ends of the UK's role in the operation.
Next week, Barak has scheduled another of his frequent trips to Washington for a visit of undetermined length. Thursday, Nov. 10, the London Daily Mail revealed that British ministers had been told to expect Israeli military action "as early as Christmas or very early in the new year."
The paper added: "Ministry of Defense sources in London confirmed that contingency plans have been drawn up in the event that the UK decided to support military action."
Although it must be assumed that this report, like other stories appearing in the media these days, was deliberately misleading – particularly with regard to the timeline - it appeared to be signaling that the Cameron government had come aboard.
The final timetable will depend on a host of variables, such as the weather, the position of the moon with respect to tides, storms in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and the seasonal directions of underwater coastal currents. However, it is generally expected to go forward as expeditiously as possible.
In many ways, President Obama views the NATO operation just ended in Libya, and its focus on air and sea bombardment and actions by small special forces units, as a curtain-raiser for the campaign against Iran – only this time he wants to see not only the US but also other Western allies taking a back seat.
Israel would provide the sharp end of the attack, with the allies providing all the necessary intelligence, logistic and air and missile defense, so as to leave Israel's armed forces (IDF) free to fully focus on the offensive part of the operation.

Days not weeks needed to accomplish the mission

Neither Obama nor Netanyahu supports the theory that Israel would take three months to disable Iran's nuclear installations and its elite Revolutionary Guards bases. They agree that a blitz offensive could do the job in 10 days to two weeks.
According to some expert assessments, the exercise of IDF might to its fullest extent, with efficient support from Western logistical and intelligence infrastructure should suffice without the need for extra time. If, however, Israel fails to accomplish its missions, then the question of direct US military intervention along with West European armies will arise.

There are two reasons to assume that the Iran operation will be brief:
1. Its purpose is not regime change in Tehran but is limited to disabling Iran's primary nuclear facilities and the command structure of the Revolutionary Guards. US military planners believe the two objectives can be achieved in five days to a week.
2. It is hoped that a blitz campaign if short enough will not draw Syria and Hizballah into the war. Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah will want to see which way the winds of war blow before committing their forces to a confrontation - not just with Israel but with the United States and a host of European armies.

Plan incorporates surprises for Iran

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report that there is no resemblance between the operational master plan approved by Obama and Netanyahu and the hypothetical scenarios published in recent weeks. The essential feature of the plan is speed. The nature of the weaponry and tactics are kept under tight wraps in order catch Iran by surprise.
The sympathetic working relationship cultivated between the US president and the Israeli prime minister has not completely dispelled their old mutual distrust. Obama still entertains a lingering suspicion that Netanyahu may at some point act unilaterally, possibly by jumping the gun on the attack, while the Israeli leader fears Obama may pull back at the last minute.

However, according to our sources in Washington and Jerusalem, preparations for the strike are so far advanced and Western allies like Britain, France and Germany so deeply committed, that it is almost impossible for either leader to go off on a unilateral tangent without the other.
At the same time, those sources warn that right up until D-Day, some unforeseen event may not be ruled out for throwing the plan off-course.


Реакция самого Ирана на фоне этих событий тоже не выглядит замедленной или неадекватной, но идеально вписывается в общий сценарий разворачивающихся событий:

Debka 11-Nov-11

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has put the country on a war footing having decided that the threats by the United States, Israel and NATO members Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Holland to strike Iran's nuclear facilities should be taken with the utmost seriousness.
Sunday, Nov. 6, two days before the publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s critical report, Khamenei summoned the regime's top officials and commanders to his office for a tour d'horizon of Iran's readiness for a confrontation.
By taking this stand, the Supreme Leader, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Iranian sources report, put an end to the arguments among three establishment factions over whether the US, Israel and NATO powers were saber-rattling in earnest or faking it to destabilize the regime by scaring 70 million people into believing that a Western offensive was coming down on their heads, brought on by their government's aggressive nuclear policy.
1. The military faction won out over the other two by persuading Khamenei that the Western-Israeli threat is not only genuine but could be realized at any moment. This faction is made up of a formidable array of top military and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) officers: IRGC chief Gen. Ali Mohammed Jafari, the al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Navy commander Adm. Habibollah Sayyar, Head of the Basij Forces Gen. Nagdio Mohammad-Reza and Commander of Iran's ground forces Gen. Brig. Ahmad-Reza Bourdastan.

Ahmadinejad apocalyptic

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi offered this enigmatic view: "Let them publish their report. One can die only once and even grief passes."
He appeared to be advising the Islamic Republic to face up to the inevitable without fear.
2. The position taken by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi at the head of the second faction was that an attack on Iran is not certain but the threat should not be taken lightly. This week, Ahmadinejad maintained that if Iran did not prepare itself for a possible attack, it could face destruction and be thrown back 500 years.
Then, Tuesday, the president gathered his closest advisers around him for an apocalyptic message: "The military showdown with the West and Israel is close. It can no longer be prevented."
3. This faction warned that plunging into reckless action would give the US and Israel a pretext for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Tehran must exercise the utmost caution in its responses to avoid giving its enemies cause for war. This group's spokesman is Mohammed Reza Qalidaf, the Mayor of Tehran and until five years ago one of the four IRGC top commanders.

The Guards mark 102 US Mid-East targets

Gen. Soleimani launched the military review which followed by spreading out a map on which he had marked the first 102 American military targets in the Middle East designated for missile attack the moment the US or Israel went into action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
Some of the missiles were to be fired from locations outside Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report he was referring to missiles to be launched from Syria by Iran's surrogates, the Lebanese and Iraqi Hizballlah, as well as al Qods and other cells.
Those missile teams, he reported, were standing by on the Syrian-Iraqi frontier ready for action. The plan is for them to step across the frontier, release their rockets against the US targets listed in their orders and immediately step back into Syria. This stratagem aimed to muddy the sources of the attack.
The IRGC chief also uncovered plans for Iraqi Hizballah fighters to shoot missiles from southern Iraq against the oil fields and terminals of the Persian Gulf emirates and set them on fire.
Those fighters have taken possession of 150 Scuds B and D which were in Iraqi army use up until 2003 and are now maintained in good order by Iranian technicians present in South Iraq under cover.
The Chairman of Iran's Nuclear Energy Agency Fereydoon Abbasi then reviewed his crash operation to transfer all the nuclear testing labs and equipment to underground structures safe from air and missile attack.
Not all the bunkers were finished, Abbasi said. But to save time, the transfers of essential installations had begun this week into unfinished underground chambers. This meant they would not be fully operational for some weeks, if not months.
In Abbasi's view, any US or Israeli operation would also seek to disrupt the country's strategic and civilian infrastructure.
Starting next week, he reported, top nuclear scientists, engineers and technicians would be collected from their homes and hidden in secret facilities for their protection.

Iran has 400 WMD-capable missiles

The IRGC Aerospace commander Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, who is responsible for Iran's missile systems whether for attack or defense, offered the most extensive briefing, the crux of which was the disclosure of 400 operational Shahab-3 Kadar missiles capable of carrying nuclear, chemical and different kinds of poison gas warheads.
(British Foreign Secretary William Hague reported to the Commons on June 29, 2011 that Iran had been carrying out "covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload…")
Like the speaker before him, Gen. Hajizadeh stressed the monumental effort his forces had made in recent months to transfer the missiles into underground tunnels and speed up the construction of launching silos.
He reckoned that 5-8 percent of all missile barrages fail on average; another 10-15 percent miss their aim; and an unknown proportion would be intercepted by American, Israel, Saudi or Gulf anti-missile missiles.
But he remained optimistic, certain that hundreds would still reach their targets.
Gen. Hajizadeh added that Hizballah in Lebanon and the Hamas and Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip would shoot 1,000 more long- and medium-range missiles in the first hours of the war, plus 3,000 short-range rockets such as multiple-rocket Katyushas and mortar rounds.
This barrage would cover every part of Israel.

Twelve military districts

The IRGC and Basij Forces commanders then reviewed their war preparations in Iran's 12 military districts or sectors. Each one has a separate autonomous command which functions independently of the supreme command and other district centers.
Established in mid-2010 as insurance against the breakdown of authority in one district having a knock-on effect on the others, the system was designed as an obstacle course for curtailing the spread of a popular uprising across the country.
In early 2011, it was converted from civilian to military use as part of a master plan for keeping the various parts of the country independently afloat under foreign military assault.
Navy Commander Adm. Sayyar described how the Iranian fleet was arrayed in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in deployments for thwarting Western and Israeli submarine attacks on targets in Iran and safeguarding Its coasts from landings by foreign marine and special forces.